• Components: The paper concerns the creation/forecast of a partially intuition-based attack scenario, based on scant intelligence, or ‘dots’ in the form of a theoretical Intelligence intercept (below). You fill in the “gaps” with logical assertions backed up from your research and via your understanding of course materials. A predetermined parameter in this case is that before this intercept, another broad intelligence intercept was received indicating a major domestic terrorist attack would occur against the US within three-to-nine months (for your assignment, write it as if today is June 15, 20XX). These two items are the “intelligence available.” You must analyze all the provided “raw intelligence” and apply your knowledge from the course to create a basic attack scenario around these two pieces of intelligence on the impending, potential future attack. In your description of how you assess the attack will unfold (25% of the essay), try to address factors such as weapons and attack methods, time frame, target, logistics/travel, expected casualties, etc. The other 75% of the paper should provide a discussion of WHY you think the attack will go along those lines. Use cited references to course materials and research that backs up your assessed attack forecast. Bring in the use of collections indicators and a forecasting methodology as well. An assertion not backed up with evidence and/or reasoning is just an opinion–and that is insufficient. While the scenario you paint is fictitious, remember that the goal is for you to demonstrate understanding of course key themes (cited) and incorporate a few scholarly research works on terrorism and WMD. You should bear in mind when formulating the essay the learning objective and tasks above. Transcript of Intercept: Fragmented intelligence from a senior al-Qaida member was intercepted. He is unaware of the interception. No further indicators or intelligence has been forthcoming, except that it is known that there is an impending attack on the US mainland within 3 to 9 months, and that this intercepted intelligence is not disinformation and is considered credible: (Arabic, reproduced in phonetic Latin alphabet). Dots represent breaks in intercept. HIJOOM……DYMES SQUARE……WAHAD OH TELATEEN……RA……AL SINEH (RAS EL SINEH?)……….KHAMESS IQWAN…AFGHAN…………………………….JAMAYAT SAFAR LEBNANIAH.…GHARE MOOSTAHMELLEH WA MA’ASRUKAH……….………ISMAH MESEHIEH………..TE’SHIRAT…EL…CONSUL…EL AMERICIEH……….CASABLANCA……… ………………………ISLAMABAD…….……BARIS………..…GENNEDY…………..…BEIT AMEEN ……BROKLIN………..MEEYET LITTER SARIN…………SAYYARAT INSA’AF TETTER HERAK……..JUMMA………..MEN TASSAF EL LAYLEH….. ZAMAMEER………………DOW TENBEEHEE…….HALLET SAKTAH ELBIEH…TEHREEK….EL HAROOB……….…. LAGUARDIA……………..…..……………….DORONTO……….…LONDONNE……….SLAMABAD ..…..MUMKIN…..MISHKELLEH…SHURTA……….OULA..…….AMIN.………………AMERICIAH………. ISA’AF……QUMBLEH…KHAMES SHUHADA’A…… Translation (English) STRIKE …….. TIMES SQUARE ………. THIRTY-FIRST …… NEW YEAR’S EVE (?) ………… FIVE BROTHERS …….. AFGHAN ………. LEBANESE PASSPORTS STOLEN BLANKS …… CHRISTIAN NAMES ……….. VISAS … AMERICAN CONSULATE CASABLANCA……. .….. ISLAMABAD ….. PARIS ……. KENNEDY …… SAFE HOUSE ….… BROOKLYN …… 100 LITRES SARIN………… MOVING AMBULANCE ………. CROWD …… MIDNIGHT ……….. HORNS …….. FLASHING LIGHTS …… HEART ATTACK CASE …… ESCAPE ROUTE ……… LA GUARDIA ……..… TORONTO ………. LONDON ….. ISLAMABAD …… MAYBE ……. PROBLEM… AMERICAN POLICE OR SECURITY …… AMBULANCE … BOMB ……. FIVE MARTYRS…… Note: do NOT place this raw intelligence intercept in the body of your essay. Assume the reader (me) is familiar with the raw intelligence above as you craft the essay. Do not, however, assume the reader is familiar with the key course themes and/or Khalsa/ASAP methodologies.