Conceptualize the likely outcomes and implications of two scenarios in which internal, as well as external factors, shape how the Kurds would adapt their strategies and approach (maybe what could they do different) their future in a so-far unstable and predominantly Arab Iraq:
a. Scenario One: Iraq preserves its territorial integrity as a single entity while remaining factionalized along ethnic, sectarian, and religious lines. While Washington and Baghdad agreed on keeping the US troops in Iraq for the foreseeable future, to train and advise the Iraqi troops, however, a significant reduction or complete withdrawal of those troops is not unlikely. Kurds probably would emerge as the biggest losers in this scenario, although America’s commitment to Kurds has been all but certain, yet the KRI will be left without an effective partner in the fight against Sunni fundamental groups, and their struggle to contain an already influential Iran-backed Shia militia in the country.
b. Scenario Two: Presuming that the geopolitical rivalries between the key regional countries would only intensify from this point on. And as a fallout, the collapse of Iraq (system) is likely as it happened after the 2003 fall of Saddam’s regime, and most recently, when in 2014, the Islamic State
captured a third of Iraq’s territory and declared a caliphate.
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* No need for any historical context as to who the Kurds are, this is already written in the introduction.
** Expect the paper to include minimum the hot and pressing issues between the Kurdistan and Iraqi government (i.e. oil revenues, territorial disputes, etc.)