ASSIGNMENT INSTRUCTION SHEET
Module: Air Transport Market Analysis & Forecasting
Lecturers:
Total of work: Assignment
Date issued:
Latest Submission date:
This assignment constitutes 100% of the overall module mark.
Market Analysis & Demand Forecasting Module
Assignment – the world of aviation was always fast paced but Covid-19 has brought a level of change never experienced before; this year’s strategy is history!
You are tasked with developing a passenger traffic forecast for one of the airlines listed below on behalf of a key supplier to these airlines. The supplier’s products are passenger variable and every passenger travelling is offered one of these PPE products on boarding the aircraft, including children!
The forecast needs to address both the short term (1-3 year period) and the longer term (up to 10 years) and provide an annual projection of passenger volumes by geographic segment. This will include domestic vs international traffic and international traffic should be broken down into at least three geographic regions.
The overall airline forecast should include at least two scenarios which reflect different patterns of recovery post-covid. You must explain why you have chosen the forecasting methodology that you have. All forecasting assumptions must be listed clearly, as should assumptions for the scenarios you have developed. You are also expected to recommend which forecast should be adopted and why.
You will need to undertake a thorough market analysis for the airline you choose and provide evidence to support your understanding of how this market is now and how it can be expected to change over the timeframe of the forecast. The market analysis should include at a minimum: commentary on their fleet composition; current network structure; mix of traffic; product offering; competitive environment and also the airlines’ financial status. All these factors and perhaps more that you can think of will influence the suppliers plans.
You must explain why you have chosen the forecasting methodology that you have. All forecasting assumptions must be listed clearly, as should assumptions for the scenarios you have developed.
The choice of airline that you can select comes from:-
• British Airways
• Virgin Atlantic
• Singapore Airlines
• Emirates
• Etihad
• Cathay Pacific
• China Southern
• LATAM
• Wizzair
• JetBlue
Word Limit: 3,500 words (for main report excluding figures, tables, appendices and references)
Page limit: 25 pages (including all graphs, charts, tables and appendices)
Note: Please follow the procedure to submit your assignment according to the school’s regulation.
Please note:
• A word count penalty of 10 marks will be deducted for any submission over the maximum permitted word count.
• There is a late penalty of 10 marks for each day of delay until the 4th day when your coursework will be considered as zero (unless extenuating circumstances have been approved).
• Remember plagiarism is an offence and is dealt with seriously at the University of Surrey. All essays should fully reference sources of information using the Harvard Referencing System (see PG handbook for further information on plagiarism).
The marking schedule for this task is as follows: –
Section Key Tasks Mark Allocated
Market Analysis Summarise the position of the airline in the market.
Assess likely patterns of growth in air travel and what that means for the markets your chosen airline operates in.
Draw a series of conclusions for future traffic growth for the airline, substantiated by data and fact. 40%
Forecast Methodology Provide compelling evidence for your choice of forecast methodology and justify any difference in short and long term methodology.
Identify any drawbacks for your chosen methodology and explain why you did not select alternative approaches. 30%
Forecast Provide a 10-year forecast (2021-2030) for an airline, in aggregate and broken down into geographic regions.
Provide at least two scenarios for your forecast that reflect different market/growth assumptions.
Detail all assumptions made. 10%
Summary document Present a 1 page summary document with your forecast scenarios, highlighting the forecast that you recommend they adopt, and key information required by Senior Management at the supplier company. 10%
Overall presentation 10%
Generic Grade Descriptor for Postgraduate Courses
Description Characteristics PG Mark
Range
Excellent An outstanding performance in which a student, at this level, 70-100
demonstrates a superior grasp of the subject matter and an
ability to go beyond the given material in a critical,
constructive or innovative manner. The student demonstrates
a high degree of logical thinking, a superior ability to
organise, to present, to analyse and to integrate ideas, and a
thorough familiarity with the relevant literature and references
many good sources.
Good A more than adequate performance in which a student, at this 60-69
level, demonstrates a thorough grasp of the subject matter
and an ability to organise, present and examine the material
in a critical and constructive manner. The student
demonstrates a good understanding of the relevant issues
and a familiarity with the relevant literature.
Satisfactory An adequate performance in which a student, at this level, 55-59
demonstrates a generally adequate grasp of the subject
matter and a moderate ability to organise, present and
examine the material in a critical and constructive manner.
The student displays an adequate understanding of the
relevant issues and a general familiarity with the relevant
literature.
Pass A barely adequate performance in which a student, at this 50-54
level, demonstrates a familiarity with the subject matter, but
whose attempts to organise, present and examine the
material in a critical and constructive manner are only partially
successful. The student displays some understanding of the
relevant issues and some familiarity with the relevant
literature.
Marginal Fail A student, at this level, fails to demonstrate clear familiarity 40-49
with the subject matter, relevant literature and techniques;
shows poor or inappropriate presentation / organisation;
relies on very limited and often irrelevant material; provides
weak or non-existent analysis and evaluation.
Fail A student, at this level, demonstrates very little knowledge of <40 subject matter; uses muddled or irrelevant material; presents or organises work poorly with no attempt at analysis or evaluation. Work may contain significant errors.